Just after global oil demand crashed by 20 percent in April, analysts predicted that consumption would recover in the second half of 2020 and, supported by the OPEC+ production cuts and U.S. curtailments, would help the oil market to rebalance.    By July, oil demand had recouped most of the losses incurred during the second quarter, but the recovery started to wobble with the resurgence of coronavirus cases in major economies, including in the United States, India, and Europe. High uncertainties about COVID-19 and the economic recovery started to weigh on the oil market and prices at the end of the summer when it became clear that 2020 would not be the year of oil market balance as the world still has a lot of excess crude and oil product stocks to process. 

Stocks are drawing down in the world’s top petroleum consumer, the United States, but the pace is very slow. The market is moving toward rebalancing, but this process will likely take many months more and certainly more than initially expected. 

A number of uncertainties put downward pressure on every oil demand forecast and on oil prices these days, including when an effective vaccine could be available to many people in many countries when economies recover, and whether consumer behavior has changed for good with work from home and virtual corporate events and conferences. 

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